- Institutional integration and productivity growth: Evidence from the 1995 enlargement of the European Union, 2022 - European Economic Review, joint with N. Campos and F. Coricelli
This paper studies the productivity effects of integration deepening. The identification strategy exploits the 1995 European Union (EU) enlargement, when all candidate countries joined the Single Market but one — Norway — did not join the EU. Our synthetic difference-in-differences estimates on sectoral and regional data suggest had Norway chosen deeper integration, the average Norwegian region would have experienced an increase in yearly productivity growth of about 0.6 percentage points. This method also helps determining the sources of heterogeneity, apparently inherent to integration, highlighting higher costs of the missed deeper integration for more peripheral regions and industrial sector.
We study the parameter instability in the monetary policy rule followed by the US Federal Reserve Bank since WWII.We find evidence across a variety of econometric methods of fundamental instability, in particular on the parameter governing the reaction to inflation expectations – the Taylor Principle. We augment the monetary policy rule to account for liquidity conditions and find consistent violations of the Taylor Principle without sunspot inflation episodes. We study the presence of multiple regimes and find that when uncertainty and economic slowdown are looming the Fed reacts passively to expected inflation.
- Key linkages between banks and the non-bank financial sector, Financial Stability Review, May 2023, European Central Bank, Special Feature B, with Maciej Grodzicki, Benedikt Kagerer, Christoph Kaufmann, Francesca Lenoci, Luca Mingarelli, Cosimo Pancaro and Richard Senner
Banks are connected to non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector entities via loans, securities and derivatives exposures, as well as funding dependencies. Linkages with the NBFI sector expose banks to liquidity, market and credit risks. Funding from NBFI entities would appear to be the most likely and strongest spillover channel, given that NBFI entities maintain their liquidity buffers primarily as deposits and very short-term repo transactions with banks. At the same time, direct credit exposures are smaller and are often related to NBFI entities associated with banking groups. Links with NBFI entities are highly concentrated in a small group of systemically important banks, whose sizeable capital and liquidity buffers are essential to mitigate spillover risks.
Work in progress
We investigate the evolution of persistence in post-WWII US inflation. Besides standard methods, we draw cutting edge methods from deep neural networks and leverage their flexibility in dealing with long trends and short swings to study inflation inertia. We consistently find evidence of decreasing persistence since the mid-90's, also controlling for trend inflation and commodities influence. The decrease pre-dates the onset of globalisation and thus points to longer term transformations unfolding in the US economy, such as structural change. Focusing solely on inflation data with a purely statistical analysis we find evidence of a long, slow trend of decreasing persistence in inflation dynamics, which has accelerated in the last two decades.
Short slides (Sept. '20)
We propose and study a model with liquid bonds, money, and illiquid assets. This simple set-up breaks the New Keynesian requirement for aggressive monetary policy. We study how liquidity affect portfolio choices and shock propagation: We find that inflation display higher inertia under a stable, accommodative monetary policy stance. We study how a liquidity dry-up propagates through the economy.
PSE Working Paper (Oct. 2020)
Longer term projects
Relative prices and inflation on both sides of the Atlantic, joint with C. Osbat, M. Parker
Financial leverage in the Non Bank Financial Intermediation (NBFI) sector, joint with L. Cappiello, C. Kaufmann, S. Kordel, P. Molitor
Sectoral inflation and optimal monetary policy
ML-VAR: a machine learning approach to time series macroeconometrics
Effects of labour market frictions and knowledge spillover on the structural change, 2015, written in partial fulfilment of ETE Master's Degree, under the supervision of Prof. Fabrizio Coricelli.
A simple two-sector model accounts for the effect of labour market frictions and sectoral productivity differentials on structural change dynamics, intended as industry labour share.